The numbers make self-funding look straightforward at first. Then you extend the scenarios, and the picture changes significantly.
The Base Scenario
A Nevada nursing home costs approximately $100,000 per year in 2025. The average care event lasts 2.5 years. Doing the simple math: $250,000. That sounds manageable for a household with $800,000 in retirement savings.
But average is not worst case. Here is the range of scenarios:
- ✓ Average scenario (2.5 years): $250,000
- ✗ Above-average scenario (5 years): $500,000
- ✗ Dementia/severe cognitive (8–10 years): $800,000–$1,000,000
- ✗ Couple, both needing care simultaneously: $200,000/year or more
A couple where both spouses require nursing-level care for 4 years each, not an unusual scenario for a married couple, faces $800,000 in care costs. That number can absorb a $1,000,000 retirement portfolio almost entirely, leaving a surviving spouse with dramatically reduced financial security.
The Inflation Problem
Long-term care costs have historically risen faster than general inflation, typically 3–5% per year. A person who is 55 today and plans to need care at 80 should model care costs 25 years from now, not today's figures:
- ✗ At 3% inflation: $100K/year today becomes ~$210K/year in 25 years
- ✗ At 4% inflation: $100K/year today becomes ~$267K/year in 25 years
- ✗ At 5% inflation: $100K/year today becomes ~$339K/year in 25 years
A 5-year care event at that inflated cost, $267K/year for 5 years, totals $1.33 million. Most middle-class Nevada households cannot absorb this without fundamentally compromising retirement. LTC insurance that includes an inflation protection rider transfers this inflation risk to the insurer.
The bottom line: Self-funding is only a credible strategy when you have liquid assets of $1.5M–$2M or more above and beyond what you need to fund your full retirement income. For most Nevada households, that threshold is not met, and LTC insurance is the more efficient risk transfer tool.